Hot weather and Euros help boost grocery sales

Total Till sales at UK supermarkets improved +3.6% in the last four weeks ending 13 July 2024, up from 1.1% in the previous month, as the arrival of hot summer weather and the Euros helped boost performance, according to new data released today by NIQ. Promotions also helped to drive spending over the last four weeks. While the level of promotional spend was maintained at 25%, there was a focus on branded promotions for the start of the ‘summer of sport’, with 38% of branded FMCG sales being purchased on promotion, up from 33% a year ago. This was driven by beers, wines and spirits where promotions accounted for 51% of sales. In contrast, across all of FMCG, only 17% of own label sales were purchased on promotion during this period. 1 This promotional activity is in keeping with consumer desire for good prices and deals as one in three households will stock up on their preferred brand when it’s on promotion and this helped to drive volume growth up 1.5%.2 NIQ data also shows that within the four week period, online sales increased (+3.8%) with its share of FMCG growing to 12.9%, up from 12.7% this time last year. And while there were more visits to stores (+1.2%) this was offset by a slightly smaller average basket spend per visit (-1.3%) as shoppers benefited from lower inflation but also remained cautious about discretionary spend. Meanwhile, shoppers celebrated the warm weather with al fresco eating and drinking with family and friends, with strong unit growth in crisps and snacks (+6%), fresh meat/poultry (+4.4%) and also produce (+2.8%). Drinks fared less well against the June 2023 heatwave with beers, wines and spirits experiencing a value growth of +1.3% (unit -0.8%) and soft drinks sales were down -1.3% in value (and - 4.2% in unit) and over the 5 weeks of the Euro 2024 football tournament, snacks were the best performing categories growing at 8.3% (value) and 4.8% (units). Across the retailers, Ocado (+12.9%) and Mark and Spencer (+8.6%) enjoyed the fastest growth over the 12 weeks with Tesco, Sainsburys, Lidl and Waitrose also gaining market share. Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “The three major things that influence how shoppers spend are the weather, events and increased promotional activity. In the last few weeks all of these have been in play however, we’ve seen that strong branded promotions around Euro 2024 had the biggest impact at the start of the summer. “We also saw subdued growth in consumer confidence compared to previous months. Whilst this sentiment may have a more direct impact on wider retail spend, such as big ticket items, for food retail it is the return of CPI inflation to 2% and increased promotional activity that encourages shoppers to spend. With the summer holiday season underway, retailers will need to encourage shoppers to keep spending for as long as the sun keeps shining and then have some compelling offers ready for back to school in September.”