Grocery sales stabilise helped by supermarket loyalty scheme discounts

Total Till sales at UK supermarkets experienced sustained growth (+9.1%) in the last four weeks ending 7 October 2023, according to new data released today by NIQ.

This growth, although slightly down from +10.1% growth in the previous month, is in line with retail food inflation (+9.9%). Volume sales also continued to improve with a decline of just -0.4% in the last four weeks, which NIQ said suggests that some shoppers are pressing the reset button on spending and taking advantage of price cuts from retailers. This has been encouraged by an increase in the discounts offered by supermarket loyalty schemes.

Data from NIQ also revealed that visits to stores were only up +1.6% as the back to school period led shoppers to return to their usual shopping patterns. As a result, there was a slight boost to online grocery sales, with the channel’s market share returning to 11% of FMCG sales in the same period. Those that have chosen this channel claim to be doing so to save money (51%) and time (48%)2.

Warm weather towards the end of September and early October also led to some seasonal categories achieving an uplift in sales. NIQ data shows that shoppers are purchasing more fruit, vegetables and salads with the category seeing volume sales increase (+3.6%). In particular, there was a boost to unit sales for raspberries (+35%), strawberries (+33%), and vine tomatoes (+20%).

However, some categories felt the effects of inflation with confectionery value sales of (+12%) followed by frozen (+9.1%) and crisps and snacks (+9.0%). Beer, Wine and Spirits sales (+2.2%) continue to have the lowest FMCG growth in the last four week period.

However, there was an uptick in sales for beer and cider (+8.8%) and in particular stout (+19.2%), which was likely due to consumers purchasing ahead of celebrating and watching the Rugby World Cup.

In terms of retailer performance, Aldi and Lidl remained the fastest growing retailers over the last 12 weeks, although sales remain strong at Tesco (+9.5%) and Sainsbury’s (+8.9%), with both retailers having more visits than the same time last year. M&S (+12.6%) has also seen continued growth benefiting from the warm weather and Ocado is growing at 9.4%.

Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “Our latest data indicates that the online grocery channel is back into sustainable growth, with sales up 7.3% over 12 weeks. Ocado has grown market share of the online channel helped by increased marketing activity and the investment in price matching against Tesco including promotions and Clubcard prices. These seems to be resonating well with shoppers.

“There has been an improvement in volumes purchased over the last four weeks. This is a reflection that this time last year the pressure was growing on household incomes as inflation was accelerating in fuel, energy, and food. But it may also be an indication that some shoppers are now feeling more confident about their personal finances. If so, this would help sustain growth over the forthcoming half term period and may give a further boost in early November as seasonal advertising campaigns start.”