Supermarket sales to hit £13bn over Christmas

Supermarket sales are expected to exceed £13bn over the four weeks of December for the first time ever, according to the latest data from Kantar. The news comes as take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.5% over the four weeks to 1 December 2024 as shoppers get ready for Christmas. Outside of the food and drink aisles, retailers’ general merchandise lines are also predicted to get a boost. Spending on non-grocery items in the supermarkets leapt by 21% in December 2023 versus the monthly average for that year. The cost of an average Christmas dinner for four has risen to £32.57, up by 6.5%, largely driven by the price of turkey and Christmas vegetable staples. Wider grocery price inflation remains relatively stable at 2.6%, with grocers prioritising low pricing over multibuys. Britain’s largest grocer Tesco achieved its highest market share since December 2017 at 28.1%, up from 27.4% in 2023. Its sales grew by 5.2% in the 12 weeks ending 1 December 2024. Sainsbury’s share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.9%, and spending through its tills was 4.7% higher than last year. The UK’s two biggest grocers now have a combined market share of 44%. Online retailer Ocado boosted sales by 8.7% over the period, achieving a 1.8% share of the market. It outpaced the total online market which grew by 3.6%, with shoppers spending £4.2bn on the channel overall across the 12 weeks. Meanwhile, Lidl was the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, with sales up by 6.6%. Its share climbed 0.3 percentage points to 7.7%. The retailer’s footfall stepped up by nearly 10% in comparison with a year ago. Spending at Morrisons rose by 2.0%, and it now takes 8.6% of the market. Its average transaction value nudged up by 4.8% over the 12 weeks, helped by strong online sales. This was significantly ahead of the average growth in basket spend across the grocers as a whole, which edged 0.7% higher to £24.51 this period. Waitrose grew slightly ahead of the market, with spending increasing by 2.6%. It maintains a 4.4% share. Spending at Aldi grew by 2.1%, and the retailer retained 10.3% of the market. Iceland also held its share of 2.2%, and Co-op’s portion of the market is now 5.5%. Asda has a 12.3% market share. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “Monday 23rd December is likely to be the single busiest day for the supermarkets this year, although there are clear signs that shoppers are already stocking up their cupboards. Sales of assorted sweet biscuits and biscuits for cheese both doubled in November compared with the month before, while 8% of us bought a Christmas pudding. “Many of us take the chance to treat ourselves at this time of year and retailers are rolling out seasonal product lines to help us celebrate in style. The proportion of spending on premium own label products reached 5% over the latest four weeks and we expect it to climb even higher in December to nearly 7%.”