Supermarkets see sales improve as they head into Christmas

In the last four weeks supermarkets’ total till value growth increased to 5.3% from 4.7% last month, despite inflation accelerating and shoppers purchasing less, according to NielsenIQ data.

Across the industry, it found average spend per visit increased to £18.50 compared with £18.20 last month but is still lower than the same period last year when it was £18.70. In terms of channel performance, discounters Aldi and Lidl (7.7%) outperformed convenience stores (4.3%) and supermarkets (3.1%).

Reflecting on the wider slowdown in discretionary spending due to inflation, General Merchandise value sales fell -1.2% with volumes down -7.6%.

Nevertheless, value growth across FMCG for the week ending 5 November was “more robust” at 5.1% at the Grocery Multiples and the strongest it has been since July’s record breaking temperatures.

NielsenIQ added it expects to see growth at larger stores improve in the run up to Christmas as savvy shoppers hunt for the lowest prices.

It found some 49% expect to find special Christmas offers from supermarkets (a direct discount on price being the most preferred) which suggests that they can be persuaded to spend provided the price is within budget.

Consumers are expected to make a trade off this year to enjoy the festive period and for many, Christmas will be cushioned by spending more on food and drink at home.

Meanwhile, NielsenIQ found that visits to stores are up 7% compared with this time last year. ASDA is the fastest growing retailer over the last 12 weeks ending 5 November with sales growing by 7.6%, Sainsburys (5.1%) and Tesco (4.8%). Morrisons and Waitrose are the only retailers to have sales decline compared to this time last year.

According to NielsenIQ data, online sales share may have reached a turning point as the decline has slowed to just -1.2% compared to -7.8% over the last 12 weeks. Online share is now stable at 11.4% share of FMCG sales and increased from an 18-month low of 10.9% in October. It now compares favourably to a 12.2% share this time last year.

Mike Watkins, NielsenIQ’s UK head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “There is some better news for retailers and suppliers as shoppers claim they will start to buy some items early for Christmas. Our recent consumer survey shows that 30% of shoppers will have started their Christmas shopping this year before mid-October compared to 18% last year.

“27% also say they will buy Christmas gifts when they see them in store which suggests a ‘spreading the cost of Christmas’ mindset is ever more important this year as budgets are stretched2.”

Watkins added: “NielsenIQ is anticipating £34bn will be spent at the Grocery Multiples in the 12 weeks to 31.12.22 which is a growth of c4% compared to last year when there was weak post pandemic comparatives and no real industry growth. The difference this year is that, due to inflation, we expect volumes to be down c4% with shoppers buying less and more carefully this Christmas.

“With the cost of grocery shopping still rising, this is motivating shoppers to shop and buy differently. With all of the big 4 supermarkets either giving extra price reductions or adding weekly vouchers to their loyalty schemes, this may prove the catalyst to help grow sales this Christmas.”