Footfall set to plummet in lead up to Christmas
Springboard predicts this period to eradicate the gains made over much of 2022, and result in a gap from the 2019 footfall level of -18% which will be the widest since February 2022
Springboard has forecast that footfall across all UK retail destinations will decline on a month to month basis by -4.9% in September, by -2.5% in October and by -0.3% in November, but it will then increase from November to December by +6%.
It predicts this period to eradicate the gains made over much of 2022, and result in a gap from the 2019 footfall level of -18% which will be the widest since February 2022 when it stood at -20.7%.
The impact of the drop in footfall on a monthly basis between September and November means that in October and November footfall will be lower than in the same months last year (-2.1% in October and -2.7% in November versus 2021), but footfall will return to positive territory in December with a rise of +4.2% from 2021.
Diane Wehrle, insights director, said: “We have been publishing footfall data since 2009 and in each year between 2009 and 2019 footfall dipped in September from August because of a drop in consumer demand following the end of the holiday season and the start of the school term. Covid heavily disrupted the two intervening years, but this year the drop in footfall will be more severe than in the same months pre-2019. This is due to consumers’ fears over the impact of the rise in energy costs expected in October on their household budgets.
“The second key factor – once again identified through past trends – is that footfall in November dips marginally, mainly due to a drop in high street footfall which tends to occur due to the lure of shopping centres for consumers over the Black Friday trading period. In contrast to the forecast for September, the drop in footfall in November this year will be mitigated by shoppers being likely to use the discounts available over the Black Friday period to buy Christmas presents with the hope of outrunning inflation.”
She added: “Potential unemployment rates may also have increased, as some businesses fail due to the increase in energy costs, which will further depress demand in stores. Footfall will rise in all three destination types from November to December, although the rise will be more subdued than in previous years – by +4.5% in high streets, by +5% in retail parks, but by +10% in shopping centres, which are the destination of choice for many shoppers when buying Christmas gifts due to the range of products that are available.”
